World Order, a change of era

February, 24th, 2022 will remain in the history books as the official start of a new paradigm in the future “Entente” between world blocks.

On this date, Russia started the attack on its neighboring country, Ukraine. This attack on a sovereign country triggered different reactions that will cause a long standing change to geopolitics and world economy. Of course, the vision explained in this article can very well be become obsolete if politicians would come together and work it out diplomatically. However, if I would have to bet I would not bet on pragmatic, human oriented, intelligent politicians but rather on egomaniacs that live in their own bubble and do not understand that their dogmatic views will cause harm to the people they are supposed to serve.

Geopolitics

It is still early in the game, we are in October 2022, and a lot can happen. We could end up in a full blown war, world war III. 

However, if for some reason this does not happen, what seems to be drawing is a multipolar world. A world where the US and their lapdog, the EU, experience a decline int their capacity to impose their will, ideology, dictates.

We could very well see the renaissance of the cold war, Cold War 2.0. This Cold War 2.0 will be different and the old adagio that the West is the force for good and the Soviet is evil will be more difficult to sustain and sell.

This of course has all to do with the lack of moral credibility of the West, after military adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. These, of course were not invasions but rather "democracy expansion campaigns". And except for Afghanistan, the only thing the west asked to bring democracy to these countries was access to fossil fuel reserves. These countries must be thankful, GOD erroneously distributed natural resources, they should have been in the West, but since the West was only blessed with democracy, these “liberated” countries wouldn’t mind the trade.

The problem is that these countries and parts of the world are slowly but surely getting tired of being used, abused and lectured. They are finding the courage to stand up for their freedom. GOD could have been wrong in putting these natural resources in their countries but they are willing to assume GOD’s mistake and endure the curse.

So what should have been an economic and military powerhouse, EuroAsia (Europe and Russia) will most definitely not be.

Lapdog EU, decided that it was better to have the Russian Federation make part of Asia, pushing Russia in the open arms of China and the rest of Asia. 

We are experiencing the birth of a multipolar world, on the one side the lost empire syndrome suffering West and on the other side Asia + Russia.

There might be a 3rd route that would also include countries in Latin-America and Africa, like the BRICS but due to geographical and cultural reasons, the division between WEST and EAST seems more logical.

There will be a 3rd group of countries that will decide to play on both boards, having diplomatic and economic exchanges with both blocks. 

Actually, if they are smart they will play that card, taking advantage of the competition to get access to the best deals for their own populations.

This should be the way most African and Latin-American countries should play.

Economy

The change in the economic paradigm will be massive. The most important however is that we are moving from a Financial Economy into a Resource based Economy, from a credit based economy to an asset based economy.

This will bring about a big shift in wealth. Economies that for decades have been living and increasing their living standard based on an ever growing debt will be confronted with reality, that you cannot print energy, food, natural resources.

The “poorer” countries all of a sudden will find out that “wealth” is not money but hard assets, natural resources. At the end of the day theses assets are what “printed money” is chasing.

They will learn to use this leverage to transfer wealth to their countries and the West, especially Europe will quickly find out that they don’t have much to offer, except being an open museum (if it is not bombed to the ground).

When the WEST decided to freeze Russian assets and nationalize assets owned by Russians they did not only punish Putin and some Russian oligarchs, they basically gave up two of their major competitive advantages: The rule of law (Legal security) and due process.

This gave a clear message to anyone that was thinking about investing or putting their money in Europe or in the Us. There is no legal assurance. Good luck to attracting foreign investment from Asia, Africa, Latin-America or the Middle-East.

Just as a reminder: The EU countries have basically shrunk their world share in GDP by 50% between 2000 and 2022, going from 30% to 15%. This, in a favorable environment, in a "finance based economy". 

A shift to a resource based economy will only exacerbate the situation for Europe. Especially with its dependence on energy.

As economy is the transformation of energy and Europe not really being a powerhouse of the latest, the de-industrialization of Europe is the logic consequence. 

No natural resources, no industry, Europe better cherishes its historic monuments and keeps developing their infrastructures to allow tourists to move between their cities.

How long will Europeans be gaslighted by their incompetent politicians, could be a logic question? The question seems to imply that Europe is victim to an inept elite. 

Europeans, however, cannot avoid to look into the mirror and understand that what they consume in their media is an auto-complaisant status quo narrative that has been outdated for a while. If Europeans continue believing in their exceptionalism, they will continue down the rabbit whole.

If diplomacy is defeated, the EU will be the biggest loser in this new world order. And the weak always have a harder time imposing their “values”.

James Tector
Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité